Portfolio & margin
$3.36m of certificate value assigned a year · discounted at one price, sold at another
Certificate value assigned
$3.36m
1,180 jobs · $2,850 average
Held, not yet traded
$539k
Exposed to the spot price
Price movement, 12 months
−$47k
Discounted high, sold lower
Average job margin
$2,140
−$310 on last year
Wattlebank discounts at one price and sells at another, and nothing connects the two. The certificate value comes off the customer's invoice on the day they sign, using whatever price the quoting tool held that week. The certificates are sold six to ten weeks later at whatever the market is doing then. Over twelve months that gap cost $47,000 — not a trading loss anyone decided to take, just a number nobody was watching.
Discounted against realised
What was taken off invoices versus what the certificates actually fetched
Discounted at quote Realised on sale
| Quarter | Jobs | Discounted | Realised | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 278 | $792,000 | $774,000 | −$18,000 |
| Q4 2025 | 303 | $864,000 | $856,000 | −$8,000 |
| Q1 2026 | 284 | $810,000 | $789,000 | −$21,000 |
| Q2 2026 | 315 | $918,000 | $918,000 | $0 |
The gap widens whenever the gap between quoting and trading widens. Cutting 34 days down to 5 removes most of the exposure without anybody having to take a view on the market.
Where the margin goes
Average job, $9,400 · what is actually left
$170 a job goes on return visits for evidence somebody could have captured on the day. Across 1,180 installs that is $200,000 — almost exactly the $211,000 lost to rejections. The same failure is charging Wattlebank twice.
Margin by system type
Batteries are where the money is, and where the evidence fails most
| System | Jobs | Average price | Certificate value | Margin | Margin % | Evidence failures | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6 kW, no battery | 312 | $6,400 | $2,180 | $1,410 | 22.0% | 3.2% | Steady |
| 8.8 kW, no battery | 284 | $7,900 | $2,850 | $1,760 | 22.3% | 3.8% | Steady |
| 13.2 kW, no battery | 168 | $10,900 | $4,260 | $2,390 | 21.9% | 5.1% | Steady |
| 6.6 kW + 10 kWh | 196 | $15,200 | $2,180 | $3,480 | 22.9% | 11.7% | Evidence risk |
| 8.8 kW + 10 kWh | 142 | $16,800 | $2,850 | $3,840 | 22.9% | 12.4% | Evidence risk |
| 13.2 kW + 20 kWh | 78 | $24,600 | $4,260 | $5,610 | 22.8% | 14.1% | Evidence risk |
Battery jobs earn double the margin and fail evidence three times as often. The battery is in the garage, the crew is on the roof, and the serial number is the last thing anyone thinks about before driving away.